Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.
Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.
This visualization provides weekly data on the number of deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence and cause of death. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks can be compared with counts from earlier years to determine if the number is higher than expected. Selected causes of death are shown, based on analyses of the most prevalent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was listed as a cause of death (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities). Cause of death counts are based on the underlying cause of death, and presented for Respiratory diseases, Circulatory diseases, Malignant neoplasms, and Alzheimer disease and dementia. Estimated numbers of deaths due to these other causes of death could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to COVID-19 (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems). Deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19 are not included in these estimates of deaths due to other causes. Deaths due to external causes (i.e. injuries) or unknown causes are excluded. For more detail, see the Technical Notes.
Provisional counts of deaths by the week the deaths occurred, by state of occurrence, and by select underlying causes of death for 2020-2021. The dataset also includes weekly provisional counts of death for COVID-19, coded to ICD-10 code U07.1 as an underlying or multiple cause of death.
This data file contains the following indicators that can be used to illustrate potential differences in the burden of deaths due to COVID-19 according to race and ethnicity:
•Count of COVID-19 deaths: Number of deaths due to COVID-19 reported for each race and Hispanic origin group
•Distribution of COVID-19 deaths (%): Deaths for each group as a percent of the total number of COVID-19 deaths reported
•Unweighted distribution of population (%): Population of each group as a percent of the total population
•Weighted distribution of population (%): Population of each group as percent of the total population after accounting for how the race and Hispanic origin population is distributed in relation to the geographic areas impacted by COVID-19
This dataset shows health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Starting December 23, 2020, the data file will also include the number of deaths that mention the listed conditions. The new column, “COVID-19 Deaths” represents the number of deaths that mention one or more of the conditions indicated. The data file’s existing “Number of Mentions” column represents the number of total conditions mentioned for each age group.
NOTES: Figures include all revisions received from the states and, therefore, may differ from those previously published. Data are provisional and are subject to monthly reporting variation. National data are calculated by summing the number of events reported by state of residence; counts are rounded to the nearest thousand (births and deaths) or hundred (infant deaths). Provisional counts may differ by approximately 2% from final counts, due to rounding and reporting variation. Additionally, the accuracy of the provisional counts may change over time. Data are estimates by state of residence. For discussion of the nature, source, and limitations of the data, see "Technical Notes" of the report, Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2009. Available from URL: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_25.htm. Final counts of births, deaths, and infant deaths for previous years can be obtained from http://wonder.cdc.gov.
SOURCE: Provisional data from the National Vital Statistics System, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC.
Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex and age group and state.
NOTICE TO USERS: As of September 2, 2020, this data file includes the following age groups in addition to the age groups that are routinely included: 0-17, 18-29, 30-49, and 50-64. The new age groups are consistent with categories used across CDC COVID-19 surveillance pages. When analyzing the file, the user should make sure to select only the desired age groups. Summing across all age categories provided will result in double counting deaths from certain age groups.